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Poll: Kerry takes Pa. lead Michael Moore, Howard Stern seem to be having impact
by DAVE DAVIES
August 19, 2004
DEMOCRAT John Kerry leads President Bush by six points in Pennsylvania, and may get a bump from Howard Stern and Michael Moore, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll.
The results are a major turnaround from the March Keystone poll, which found Bush up by six points. The survey completed Sunday shows Kerry up 48 to 42 percent, with Ralph Nader picking up 3 percent and only 7 percent undecided.
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Kerry up 47 to 42 percent, with Nader getting 4 percent.
The Keystone poll also shows incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter with a commanding lead over Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel, though Hoeffel has room to grow.
Specter is up 53 to 26 percent, with 19 percent undecided and 2 percent going to Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer, the survey found. Hoeffel fared better in the Quinnipiac poll, trailing by 48 to 33 percent.
"This state is leaning toward Kerry, but it's still competitive," said Keystone Poll director Terry Madonna. "Bush needs to do better in the Philadelphia suburbs. But the main problem for the president in Pennsylvania is his low job-approval ratings."
Only 43 percent of those surveyed said Bush deserved re-election, while 53 percent said it's time for a change.
"That shows a fair degree of uncertainty about returning Bush to office," Madonna said. "But Kerry hasn't closed the deal yet."
The poll also asked respondents whether they'd seen Michael Moore's anti-Bush film, "Fahrenheit 911," or had listened to radio personality Howard Stern, who's been attacking Bush for months.
Eight percent of those surveyed described themselves as regular Stern listeners, and a little more than one in four of them said Stern's opinions made them more likely to vote for Kerry than for Bush. Doing the math, Howard moves about 2 percent of voters, at least a little.
Eleven percent of the sample said they'd seen Moore's film, and 39 percent of them said it made them more likely to support the Democrat. That amounts to some impact on about 4 percent of the electorate.
"In a close election, these commentators, personalities, whatever you call them, they can have a marginal, but not unimportant effect on voters' choices," Madonna said. "In an election that comes down to 1 or 2 percent, you can look at a lot of things as making a difference. Here we have Nader, we have 'Fahrenheit 911,' and we have Howard."
The war in Iraq and the economy loomed large in the minds of Kerry voters, and 16 percent of his voters mentioned health care as an important issue. Bush supporters overwhelmingly cited terrorism and national security as their main reason for supporting the president.
The poll showed high voter interest in the campaign, reflecting the intense campaigns both presidential candidates have waged in the battleground states. Nearly nine in 10 registered voters questioned (89 percent) said they were certain to vote.
Voters know far less about the U.S. Senate contest than they do the presidential race, and Madonna said that's the most comforting news for Hoeffel, who trails Specter by a two-to-one margin.
"This is not unusual for a challenger this far out from the election," Madonna said. "We expect Hoeffel's numbers will increase because he's a Democrat running with Kerry. The question is whether he can get past that level of 45 percent or so and begin to challenge Specter."
The Daily News/CN8 Keystone poll was conducted by Franklin and Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research, which surveyed 660 registered voters between Aug. 2 and Aug. 15. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent.
To see the entire poll, go to http://go.philly.com/keystonepoll (pdf).
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